The modelling study in The Lancet Rheumatology predicts arthritis rates will increase by a third over the next 15 years.
Rates of arthritis in Australia are projected to increase by a third by 2040, a modelling study published in The Lancet Rheumatology suggests.
The model projects about 5.4 million Australians will have arthritis in 2040, 1.3 million (31%) more than the estimated number of cases to occur in 2025.
The age-standardised rate of osteoarthritis is forecast to increase for males from 6.3% in 2025 to 7.0% in 2040, and for females from 10.8% to 12.2% over this period. The age-standardised rate of rheumatoid arthritis is forecast to increase for males from 1.6% in 2025 to 1.8% in 2040, and for females from 2.6% in 2025 to 2.9% in 2040.
The authors said the updated projections superseded their earlier projections and highlighted the importance of appropriately resourced health services and foreshadowed likely challenges in providing timely access to care for growing arthritis populations.
The new projections also highlight key demographic patterns, including the higher disease burden among females for all conditions, all projection years and all population growth scenarios.
“Our estimates also demonstrate that people of working age will be increasingly affected, with major implications for national workforce participation and productivity,” the authors wrote.
The authors have also broken it down to arthritis types, including:
- The number of people with rheumatoid arthritis is projected to increase to an estimated 749,000 people by 2040 – this equates to an additional 187,000 people, on average, compared with 2025 estimates.
- The number of people living with osteoarthritis is expected to increase nationally to 3.1 million in the year 2040. This equates to an additional 763,000 people, on average, living with osteoarthritis in Australia compared with in 2025.
- Based on Australian population projections that predict a reduction in the size of the 15–18 years age group, the number of children and adolescents with juvenile idiopathic arthritis is estimated to decrease slightly from 2030 to 2035, before increasing again in 2040 to an estimated 8500. When considering the overall projection period, an additional 313 children and adolescents are estimated to be living with juvenile idiopathic arthritis in Australia in 2040, compared with 2025.
Annual health system spending on osteoarthritis and rheumatoid arthritis is forecast to exceed $11.9 billion by 2040, if current spending levels, estimated at $1918 per person with arthritis and $2100 per person with osteoarthritis per year, continue.
Arthritis poses a major and ongoing public health challenge for many countries, the authors wrote.
“These projections represent a stark call to action for health services, to ensure they can deliver timely, high-quality care to growing arthritis populations,” they wrote.
“Adequate resourcing will be crucial to enact capacity to provide this care—our highly conservative forecast (assuming medium population growth and no growth in expenditure over time) indicates that health system spending for the two most common arthritis conditions could exceed $11.9 billion annually by 2040.
“Addressing known deficits in the specialist workforce (Australia currently has an estimated shortfall of 302 adult rheumatologists) is also essential to avoid long waiting times and delays in diagnosis and treatment.”
The model used in this study accounted for population growth and ageing, but the authors acknowledged they were unable to account for potential future changes in the national prevalence of arthritis impacted by factors such as socioeconomic and environmental factors, smoking, lifestyle factors, changes in treatment and disease awareness.
In an accompanying comment piece in The Lancet Rheumatology, Cesar Hincapie, senior scientist and head of Musculoskeletal Epidemiology Research, Balgrist University Hospital and University of Zurich, paid tribute to the study authors.
“This study used the most recent national datasets, including the 2022 National Health Survey and updated population projections, to provide a contemporary assessment of the arthritis burden in Australia,” he wrote.
“Unlike previous studies, it offers detailed projections for specific conditions such as osteoarthritis, rheumatoid arthritis and juvenile idiopathic arthritis, further disaggregated by age and sex.
“Notably, the article provides the first age-specific and sex-specific estimates for the arthritis burden in Australia.
“This granularity enhances the value of the projections, enabling better understanding of the forecasted epidemiological metrics and trends. Previous global estimates for osteoarthritis and rheumatoid arthritis4 lacked the detailed breakdowns necessary for national planning and had important limitations due to the sparsity of country-level primary prevalence data.
“Ackerman and colleagues’ study addresses this gap, presenting a comprehensive picture of the escalating arthritis burden in Australia, particularly among women and those of working age.
“The inclusion of consumer perspectives throughout the research process ensures that the findings resonate with the lived experiences of individuals affected by arthritis, strengthening the call for improved access to timely, high-value care for people with arthritis.”
